The US Economic in the near term

Currently, the U.S. economy is slowing down but has not entered a recession:

• Q2 2026 GDP: Grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1.

• July employment: The economy lost 23,000 jobs, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The labor market is clearly weakening.

• July inflation: Headline inflation was 3.4%, while core inflation was 2.5%. Energy prices increased sharply—14.7% compared with one year earlier.

• Federal Reserve rate: Remains at 3.50%–3.75%.

In short: Economic growth is weakening, employment is the biggest concern, and inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. If employment continues declining in August and September, the likelihood of Fed interest-rate cuts will increase. Rate cuts generally benefit bonds and some growth stocks, although the stock market could decline first if investors become worried about a recession.