The US Economic would feel like in late 2025

By late 2025, I’d expect:

• Retail sales (nominal) to continue growing, but more modestly than in “boom” years — perhaps in the 2–4 % range, depending on inflation.

• Real growth (volume) to be flat to modest, especially in discretionary categories.

• E-commerce & omnichannel strategies to drive a greater share of total sales, but with pressure on margins.

• Promotional activity to intensify, especially in competitive categories, as retailers fight for constrained consumer dollars.

• Winners will be those who have flexible supply chains, smart inventory control, strong data analytics, cost control, and differentiated offerings (loyalty, experiences, convenience).

• Strugglers will be retailers stuck in heavy fixed cost formats, poor digital integration, weak balance sheets, or overly reliant on discretionary consumer spending.